In ever-changing Marin County real estate, reviewing yearly market trends with monthly breakdowns is the most viable way of staying on top of the market. Monitoring yearly data enables buyers and sellers to fully understand where the market has been and where it is going. Condo and single-family home prices have trended in different directions over the past 12 months. Statistics show that the median sale price for single-family homes is up 10% while condo prices have dropped by 3%. Remember, statistics are only a snapshot in time. As you can see by the chart, if the snapshot was taken in June, condos would be slightly up and single-family homes up even more. This reveals that prices have actually been on an even keel for the last year or so.
Over the last 12 months, Days on Market has increased while the number of units sold has decreased. Inventory for single-family homes is down by 14.3% and condominiums down by 9.5%. Predictably, the ratio of sale price to list price has varied within the past year but has trended down for both condos and single-family homes. The list price/sale price ratio for condos, however, has dropped below 100% for the first time in a while. These stats reflect a more analytical and value-conscious buyer then we’ve seen for several years and indicates a pivotal need for spot-on pricing.
While the statistics for Days on Market, Units Sold and the Ratio of List Price to Sale Price point to a softening market, it is not so clear-cut when we look at how many properties are actually available. After adjusting for properties that are closed and in contract, only about 30% of the inventory is actually available for purchase in any one month. This equates to a Month’s Supply of Inventory (MSI) of around 2! (A balanced market should be between 4 and 5 MSI). With an MSI of 2, and no new listings brought to market, the shelves would be empty within 2 months! This indicates that the demand for Marin real estate is still strong and prices may again start to rise as fall approaches.
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